Belt and Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #76

Supply chains are rapidly evolving due to the situation in Ukraine, this week we examine how the southern BRI and INSTC routes are developing as the Caucasus, Gulf and Central Asia take on more infrastructure projects to keep up with new Europe-Asia demand.

The Caucasus 

Russia’s Pivot To Asia – The Caucasus & Suez 

Europe is in danger of being excluded from Asia with Russian and Chinese influence in the Caucasus and Suez regions.

Georgia’s Poti Black Sea Port To Get Major Infrastructure & Expansion Overhaul 

PM Terminals, a unit of Danish Maersk shipping company, plans to build a new terminal at Poti Sea Port in Georgia, with construction expected to start later this year 2022 with completion in 2024.

Central Asia   

Russia, Iran, Looking At Boosting Bilateral Trade Ties 

Two Pariah States created a significant energy powerhouse to defeat Western sanctions.

Iranian Goods Transit Increase 52% 

The INSTC is starting to come online along the southern Belt and Road route between Europe and Asia.

Turkmenistan’s Foreign Trade Up 41% In Q1 2022  

Turkmenistan’s largest export market is China, accounting for 76.6% of all products, followed by Uzbekistan and Russia.

Turkmenistan, Pakistan Looking To Increase Bilateral Trade    

Reconnecting rail supply chains via Iran is another spin off trade route through the INSTC.

South Asia  

How Will Imran Khan’s Ouster As Pakistan President Affect China’s CPEC Belt & Road And South Asian Security?      

Khan’s departure leaves Pakistan in a position of some status quo until new elections can be held, which probably cannot take place until the autumn.

BRICS   

Russia’s Finance Minister Asks BRICS For Non-Dollar Financial Trade Settlement Agreement  

Russia’s Finance Minister has requested from the BRICS group of countries to arrange trade settlements in their respective currencies and to avoid the use of the US dollar. The BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Intra-BRICS trade accounted for 15% of all global trade in 2019, with some analysts suggesting it could reach 50% of all trade by 2030.

Russia  

US Suspends Most-Favored Nation Status For Russia. This Is What It Means 

Clarification on new US import tariffs for Russian goods.

Belt & Road Global   

China’s Belt And Road & Beyond    

All the latest international news headlines about China’s Belt & Road Initiative.

Russia’s Pivot To Asia – New Issue of Asia Investment Research Out Now  

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has taken many analysts by surprise and together with massive, imposed sanctions has profound implications for global supply chains and commodity prices. The conflict is ushering in a new type of global economic warfare. In this special issue of AIR, we examine how the conflict was fiscally prepared and planned for by both Russia, the East, and the West, and what the geopolitical implications are likely to be.

We examine the lead up to conflict in terms of Russia’s macro-economics, foreign investment, its relations with China, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Central Asia, the Eurasian Economic Union, India, Pakistan, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea and illustrate how Ukraine is a component part of a far wider geopolitical struggle between the East and West.

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