Belt And Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #105  

Tuesday, November 1, 2022   

Compiled by Chris Devonshire-Ellis    

This week we examine the potential demand for China manufacturing in the wake of the CPC Congress reforms and delve into the Q3 trade figures to see pointers for 2023. Along the BRI, we see how the Ukraine conflict is affecting demand in Kazakhstan and Turkiye, and look at the proposals for a joint Azerbaijani-Iranian JV operator for the Western end of the INSTC, which will include managing goods transit to Europe. We look at why North Korea is opening 6 “trade offices” in Russia and the implications of Huawei leaving the Russian market.

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CHINA    

China Manufacturing – What’s Next After Xi Jinping’s CPC Reforms? – Analysis 

A complete restructuring of China’s SOEs and Private Sector can be expected to meet the CPC targets with new hybrid models being introduced as unique economic structural solutions.

China’s Foreign Trade Up 8.3% In September: Analysis 

A rise in Chinese consumption may be the only bright spot as Western markets tip into recession during Q4 2022 and 2023.

CENTRAL ASIA    

Kazakhstan – EAEU Trade Up 5% 2022 YTD 

The mutual trade between Kazakhstan and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries grew by 5% in the first eight months of 2022, according to Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov. The EAEU comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, with the latter being the dominant trade partner.

MIDDLE EAST  

Turkiye’s Exports Have Reached the Highest Levels in the Country’s History  

Turkiye’s Ministry of Trade has announced its foreign trade statistics for September 2022. According to the data, exports increased by 9.2% in September compared to the relevant month in 2021, reaching US$22.62 billion. This amount is the country’s highest ever September export figure. Imports also increased by 41.5% in the same period and reached US$33 billion.

INSTC  

Joint Azerbaijan, Iranian Logistics Operator Proposed For Western INSTC Routes To Russia And Europe 

Aims at ensuring that by 2030 the capacity of the western route of the North-South corridor will increase from the current 9 million tons to at least 15 million tons of cargo. In the first nine months of 2022, foreign trade transportation between Russia and Azerbaijan by rail amounted to 5.4 million tons, 57% higher than the same period in 2021.

RUSSIA    

China’s Huawei Poised To Exit The Russia Market 

The Chinese MNC Huawei, a major smartphone and tablet producer, is poised to leave the Russian market – although that doesn’t necessarily mean that Huawei products will be unobtainable in Russia. Sales to Russia are to be picked up instead by distributors, parallel imports, and by making Russia-only kits.

North Korea To Open Six New Trade Offices In Russia 

Indicates DPRK workers could be about to assist with Far East Russian infrastructure development projects as military deployment reduces number of available Russian workers.

BRI GLOBAL     

China’s Belt and Road & Beyond      

A global media roundup of all the latest international news, analysis, and opinion from the BRI.

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