Belt And Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #107

Tuesday, November 15, 2022    

Compiled by Chris Devonshire-Ellis       

This week we provide insights into the likely trade and investment between China and the United States following the Xi-Biden meeting at the G20 in Bali and give analysis of the 13 additional countries who have proposed joining the BRICS network and what this means in terms of their overall geopolitical and resource depth. We examine the China impact of the US mid-term elections, and look at how Russia has managed to balance its trade books by rapidly diversifying into alternative markets. These include China, and we provide market updates of China’s automotive, seafood and banking trade developments with Russia. China has also been busy at the 2022 ASEAN summit, announcing numerous investments centered around Cambodia, while China’s e-commerce capabilities have also been expanding with a 94% growth in e-commerce exports this year. Finally we wrap up with our usual BRI global report on Chinese activities around the world.

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Xi-Biden Meeting At The G20 

US-China Trade And Investment The Winner After Biden-Xi G20 Meeting 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Beijing in early 2023 as China opens markets and the United States needs an economic boost. We examine the likely trade and investment aspects as the two leaders exchanged numerous political and economic views.

BRICS 

The New Candidate Countries For BRICS Expansion      

If accepted, the new proposed BRICS members would create a global entity across three continents, a GDP 30% larger than the United States, over 50% of the global population and in control of 60% of global gas reserves. We examine the economic data of the 13 proposed new BRICS members as follows in GDP terms together with their existing international trade commitments and major trade partners.

US MID TERM ELECTIONS & CHINA IMPACT   

No Change In US Partisanship Towards China After Mid-Term Election Results – But China Market Opportunities For US Investors Continue To Grow         

There is unlikely to be any change in the United States political attitude towards China following the US Mid-Term elections, although business interest can be expected to remain high. Our views on the ground in both China, where we have had offices since 1992, and the United States, where we have representation and service hundreds of US investors into China and Asia, dictate the results of the US Mid-Term elections are unlikely to introduce any sea-change in US-China relations – except for investment. We examine the situation from both sides of the coin: Politics and Business.   

ASEAN    

China Announces New ASEAN Belt & Road Initiative Projects Centered Around Cambodia  

The 2022 ASEAN summit took place at the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh, this past weekend, with China as an official guest. At the event, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced Beijing’s approval of Chinese investment in significant infrastructure projects in the ASEAN region.  Among these is a US$1.6 billion expressway to be built from Phnom Penh to Bavet, at the Cambodian-Vietnamese border, and financial support for a rail link between Phnom Penh, Bangkok, and Vientiane, Laos, from which a high-speed rail link has already been constructed into China.

CHINA      

China E-commerce Exports Up 92.7% As BRI Countries Develop Mutual Digital Trade Engagement 

China has been rapidly developing its mutual e-commerce trade agreements by signing MoUs on e-commerce cooperation and establishing bilateral e-commerce cooperation mechanisms for cooperation in policy exchange, planning coordination, industry promotion, sub-national cooperation, capacity building and other fields with over 20 countries, according to MOFCOM.

Chinese Auto Dealers Take Over EU-Exited Russian Market  

Western auto brands increasingly being replaced by Chinese models as China dealerships in Russia increase 20% in 5 months.

Sberbank In Discussions For China Banking Operational License  

Russia’s Sberbank plans to open a branch in China in addition to a representative office, and is negotiating with the local regulator, the bank has said. Such a move would ease transactional difficulties for Russian investors in China.

RUSSIA      

Russia’s Seafood Exports To China Up 51% In 2022 

Russia’s total seafood exports to China have reached 430,000 metric tons as of November 1 since the beginning of 2022, or up 51% year-on-year, according to Rosrybolovstvo, Russia’s Federal Fishery Agency.

Russia Is Getting Close To Replacing Its Entire EU 2021 Trade Volumes In Developing Markets 

Examining Russia’s multilateral trade growth in 2022.

BRI GLOBAL       

China’s Belt and Road & Beyond        

A global media roundup of all the latest international news, analysis and opinion from the BRI.

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