Belt and Road Weekly Investor Intelligence #79

This week we take a metaphorical trip along the emerging Southern Belt & Road routes, starting from Turkey, and examine new initiatives and trade developments eastwards as we research the impact of new supply chains being developed due to the sanctions upon the Russian routes between Europe and Asia. We look at the Black and Caspian sea routes, the Iranian INSTC developments, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s increasing transit trade, new e-commerce activities in Kyrgyzstan, and the reasoning behind India’s desire to increase Russian trade. These new trends are shaping the geopolitical trade impact of European-Asian trade and are a vital component part of working out where is hot and what is not.

Turkey’s Gemlik Port Transshipments Shoot Up March and April  

More evidence of adaption to the northern rail routes from Russia being sanctioned with the subsequent drop in transshipments between Asia and the EU can be seen in the performance of Turkey’s Gemlik Port on the Marmara Sea, which has access to Europe via the Bosphurus. Gemlik Free Trade Zone facilities will be of interest to adding value to Asian-EU markets.

China Begins Using Caspian and Black Sea Routes for European Trade 

An increase in volume of cargo transportation in the region is expected against the backdrop of sanctions against Russia and Iran, with Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly important in Eurasian cargo transport.

INSTC to Help Iran Double its Eurasian Exports, with Implications for European Trade 

New routes also open up the EU to the Caucasus and Turkey, the Middle East, East Africa, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, and South-East Asia.

Iran-Russian Bilateral Trade Increased in March-April 

Near-Russian Exporters Looking To Fill Gaps Created By Exiting US and European Brands.

Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan Looking to Strategically Cooperate Over Trade and Manufacturing Investment 

New opportunities are looming as Europe-Asia supply chains move and EU trade agreements are exploited.

Uzbekistan’s Q1 2022 Eurasian Economic Union Trade Turnover Data 

Trade agreements with EU and UK having a positive dynamic effect.

Wildberries Expands into Kyrgyzstan 

Russia developing free trade ecommerce platforms into Central Asia.

India Negotiating with Russia to Buy 20 Million Barrels of Discounted Oil and Enter Russian Markets Exited by the EU  

India and Russia are engaged in talks over 20 million barrels of crude from Rosneft at heavily discounted prices. India is also keen to fill the vacuum in the merchandise sector after the withdrawal of European companies from the Russian market and is looking to boost trade by an annual US$2 billion per annum via filling the EU competition gap.

China’s Belt & Road and Beyond    

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